Integrating scenario analysis, model simulation, and design techniques to inform the scaling and siting of nature-based solutions to support multiple ecosystem services.

Climate change presents serious threats to urban areas, exacerbating stream degradation, flood risk, urban heat islands, and water and air pollution. A significant body of literature has focused on ways to measure and manage these and other ecosystem services with recent attention shifting to the question of how to implement nature-based solutions (NbS). NbS is defined as sustainable planning, design, environmental management, and engineering practices that weave natural features or processes into the built environment to promote adaptation and resilience. NbS include tree plantings, stormwater ponds, bioswales, green roofs, riparian zones. However, adopting NbS for urban water management poses unique challenges due to highly altered hydrologic regimes and limited understanding of the cost-effectiveness and utility of implementing a sufficient balance of green and grey infrastructure to mitigate flooding, heat, air, and water pollution. Existing approaches are often inadequate as most NbS assessments focus on a limited set of choices—often street trees— but little is known about how to select the most effective NbS in different contexts. Many programs identify priority neighborhoods for NbS intervention without sufficient consideration for site and NbS compatibility and lack information regarding local support and focus on technical analyses that may not address community needs. As such, a better understanding of the biophysical, regulatory, and social factors that determine the implementation and effectiveness of NbS is required as the nature, size, and position of NbS strategies directly affects the benefits it can produce as well as how residents understand and react to the intervention.

This project leverages ongoing work exploring hydrological benefits at the watershed level in Charlottesville and existing partnerships with municipal, County, and state governmental agencies, and community-based organizations in Charlottesville. Focusing on current and future planned restorations in Charlottesville and surrounding urban areas of Albemarle County, the project will explore the effectiveness of different scenarios and configurations of NbS including tree planting, stormwater best management practices (BMPs) techniques, bioretention elements and porous pavements in addressing urban water management challenges as well as co-benefits related to air quality and air temperature among others. The project integrates scenario analysis, dynamic ecohydrologic modeling, and ecosystem service modeling and quantification to monitor and model future conditions and benefits of proposed NbS interventions. In addition to ecological and hydrological assessment of NbS scenarios, the project will explore strategies for more effectively engaging communities in NbS planning. A participatory mapping approach is used to assess community impacts and benefits, including how benefits are distributed among community members as well as concerns around procedural equity in the siting of NbS and green infrastructure. Modeled results are incorporated into a cloud based Geodesign platform to explore the co-benefits and tradeoffs inherent to the management scenarios considered in a collaboration with residents, businesses, and policymakers. By better understanding the knowledge and perceptions of local communities and stakeholders on multiple NbS benefits, the proposed research will yield new knowledge that can improve community acceptance and implementation of NbS projects, while enhancing resilient adaptation strategies to the needs of the local community.