Experts Warn L.A. Fires Are a Tragic Consequence of Climate Change and Zoning Practices

Allison Barrett Carter
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smoke and fire rise over a house

Two directors at UVA’s Environmental Institute worked on water and land management in California, where they also lived, for decades. They say the fires in Los Angeles are the results of both climate change and land use choices.

The fires that have destroyed much of the County of Los Angeles, California are tragic. Two experts in California water and land management are asking what can be done differently knowing a changing climate amplified this disaster.

“The severity of the current fires in Los Angeles, and the extent of the tragedy, are exacerbated by climate change, zoning, and building practices,” said Leon Szeptycki, Associate Director of UVA’s Environmental Institute and expert in water law and policy. 

In L.A., thousands of people have suffered devastating losses and dozens are dead as multiple wildfires consumed 40,000 acres of land and burned for over ten days.

“The devastation in Los Angeles results in part from historical land use policy and development patterns, including how they interact with our contemporary climate change crisis,” said Moira O’Neill, Associate Director of UVA’s Environmental Institute and author of multiple papers on urban land use and zoning decisions in California.

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man uses hose to douse his burnt home
Altadena, California, USA - January 8, 2025: An individual uses a garden hose to put out a fire caused by the Eaton Fire. Photo by Matt Gush.

Szeptycki lived in California for a time during his professional career and O’Neill is from California, so the fires hit close to home. It is emotional and heartbreaking.

They agree the fires are the result of climate change while the devastation is from current urban development patterns interacting with that changing climate. They also agree the science on climate change and risk reduction is critical to consider as communities return and rebuild. Climate change will continue to disrupt and impact living conditions.

The intensity of the fires (and the difficulty containing them) resulted from exceedingly dry brush that is the primary vegetation of southern California and strong winds, both factors affected by climate change.

Last year, Southern California experienced more than usual rainfall. This accelerated the growth of vegetation in the region, which was followed by a record-hot summer and an extended dry season. These conditions increased the amount of dry and combustible vegetative “fuel.” (This is a threat not unique to California but stretches across the entire western region of the U.S. )

Santa Ana winds, with gusts that reached up to 70 mph, not only fueled the flames but once wildfires began, spread the fires at alarmingly quick rates. This made it nearly impossible to contain the fires. Santa Ana winds usually occur during winter when the risk of fire has historically been lower. But when winters are drier and warmer than usual, the fire season is extended. Research confirms that seasonal change is more likely due to climate change

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firefighters battle a huge blaze
Firefighters battle the Eaton fire as its burns in Sierra Madre, east side of Los Angeles, California, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. Photo by Ringo Chiu.

In Los Angeles, historical patterns of housing development contribute to the severity of the disaster, O’Neill added.

“Residences and communities are located in or abutting the wildland-urban interface, where wildfire problems are the worst, because of policy choices made decades ago that are difficult to undo,” said O’Neill. “Where people currently live complicates state and local government efforts to meet the dual challenges of reducing wildfire risk and eliminating a severe housing shortage. California’s policymakers have been tackling these dual challenges for years, passing law to increase urban housing supply and regulation to address fire risk. But the state’s housing crisis is so severe that it is not possible to prohibit all building in the wildland-urban interface—communities are already in place.”

Unfortunately, it is also not easy for people to move—even if they want to. As climate change has drastically impacted the landscape, there remains too little housing in areas that may be the safest to live in today. This is partly due to local-level zoning decisions. In some parts of the state, the difficulty of building housing in lower risk areas contributes to why some continue to live in higher risk areas.

“Policy has to prioritize increasing housing supply where it is safest to live,” says O’Neill. “But it is also true that when neighborhoods burn, people look to rebuild. It is equally critical to invest in material innovation and design to withstand wildfire where the risk remains high.”  

When assessing future fire risk, infrastructure to combat fires must also be considered. Szeptycki, who was formerly the executive director of Water in the West at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, chafes at the suggestions the recent shortage of water to fight the fires is due to cutbacks in water deliveries to southern California to protect threatened and endangered species in the Bay Delta, California’s primary water supply hub. 

“Water deliveries to Southern California have no relationship at all with difficulties in fighting these explosive fires,” Szeptycki stated. “First, L.A.’s fire hydrant system is just not designed to fight these explosive wildfires. This system was designed for fighting house fires, not wildfires.  Second, Southern California reservoirs are currently at normal or above normal levels, and indeed are close to full, largely due to the significant wet season in 2023-24.”

The changing environment has made this a disaster of epic proportions for Los Angeles -- and America.

“The County of Los Angeles is a beautiful place with vibrant cities and neighborhoods; people will rebuild,” said O’Neill. “What researchers and scientists can do, what the Environmental Institute is doing, is contribute to solutions. Policy-relevant research can identify ways to rebuild to adapt to the risks posed by our changing climate. At the same time, work on strategies to reduce emissions and build more housing where it is safest for people to live remains paramount.”